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Key findings about the religious composition of India - Shocking


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12 hours ago, MisterrSingh said:

Maybe this is anecdotal but I get the impression that low birth rates in Sikh families back in Punjab might have something to do with the entanglements that arise between brothers who have to vie for a limited acreage of inheritable farmland. We all know that for those people, accepting one's rightful share is sometimes never enough. It's not the complete picture but I think it's a contributor.

EDIT: I forgot to write my main point: The more siblings there are born to one set of parents, the less each sibling receives of the land from the father's estate. In the higgledy-piggledy thinking of modern Punjabis, I think they see themselves as being generous to the couple of kids they do end up producing by limiting the extent to which their generational land is divvied up between offspring, i.e. jameen split between 2 sons will go further than if it was split between 5 sons, which would obviously raise the potential for conflict if one or more Lady Macbeths (😅) found themselves whispering conspiracies into the ears of their husbands at the expense of the other sibling/s.

At least that's how they try to justify their disinterest in raising children.

That is THE most contributing factor for reduction in children, in combination with the lower stigma with using birth control in our community (relative to other Indians). Also, partition terminated the Jatt expansion in the canal colonies and left us with smaller land holdings and less fertile options (like Rajasthan). This meant we could only squeeze out 1-2 generations post-partition of large families with secure land holding transfers with expansion potential.

The situation now is that most land holdings are already quite small and farming families know there is no chance of maintaining their economic status without finding a job in the city. So, whether they have 2 kids or no kids, their fortunes are stunted unless they create businesses or expand their skills. In this sense the other castes are doing quite well in fact. They have their businesses that are generating decent steady incomes and easier opportunities for growth (easier to open up a small shop than it is to purchase enough agri land for sustainable income). I’ve seen in my own ancestral village where the dalits have opened up small shops in front of their homes or have ventured out into nearby townships and started small businesses. Quite remarkable actually as they’ve managed to eclipse the stagnant jatt families.

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8 minutes ago, Jai Tegang! said:

That is THE most contributing factor for reduction in children, in combination with the lower stigma with using birth control in our community (relative to other Indians). Also, partition terminated the Jatt expansion in the canal colonies and left us with smaller land holdings and less fertile options (like Rajasthan). This meant we could only squeeze out 1-2 generations post-partition of large families with secure land holding transfers with expansion potential.

The situation now is that most land holdings are already quite small and farming families know there is no chance of maintaining their economic status without finding a job in the city. So, whether they have 2 kids or no kids, their fortunes are stunted unless they create businesses or expand their skills. In this sense the other castes are doing quite well in fact. They have their businesses that are generating decent steady incomes and easier opportunities for growth (easier to open up a small shop than it is to purchase enough agri land for sustainable income). I’ve seen in my own ancestral village where the dalits have opened up small shops in front of their homes or have ventured out into nearby townships and started small businesses. Quite remarkable actually as they’ve managed to eclipse the stagnant jatt families.

How's the construction industry going on in Panjab? I see loads of other Indians, even here in the UK, doing high level jobs in that field, and they look like they've been trained back home.  Why isn't this industry blowing up in Panjab? What about structural engineers, civil engineers etc etc.  

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1 hour ago, dallysingh101 said:

How's the construction industry going on in Panjab? I see loads of other Indians, even here in the UK, doing high level jobs in that field, and they look like they've been trained back home.  Why isn't this industry blowing up in Panjab? What about structural engineers, civil engineers etc etc.  

I’ve never come across an apana that brings any trade skills from Punjab when they come over either as students or through marriage. Driving a tractor-trolley is probably the only skill they can transfer over to, perhaps, trucking, lol. They don’t really value quality trademanship over there from what I’ve seen. You get hacks and jugaadis doing odd jobs around the pind with more artistic trades being brought in from other states (at least that’s what I saw from the few villages I visited). I didn’t see construction companies comparable to even the small-sized ones apaney often start here in Canada, and probably same for UK. The bigger construction projects like roads and towers (in Mohali) appeared to be run by non-punjabis, including the labor. Vast number of apany fall into trades when they arrive here, yet they never bother learning these skills from back home, instead they pursue useless degrees that have no value here or in their native place.

There’s no career counselling and diversification in the schooling system. Kids go through the system for the sake of it, not to actually pick up skills they could use in their local economy

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2 hours ago, Jai Tegang! said:

There’s no career counselling and diversification in the schooling system. Kids go through the system for the sake of it, not to actually pick up skills they could use in their local economy

I don't think that's any different to much of working class UK. 

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15 hours ago, Jai Tegang! said:

Driving a tractor-trolley is probably the only skill they can transfer over to, perhaps, trucking, lol.

There is a massive shortage of HGV drivers in the UK, seeing as that's right up jut's street, they could jump on that? It pays well apparently. 

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2 minutes ago, californiasardar1 said:

Who cares about any of this?

 

If we are looking at real Sikhs (i.e. exclude monay), then the fertility rate is far below 1.6

The real fertility rate is like 0.003 or something

 

Sikhs have already been reduced to a fringe group, and things will only get worse in the coming decades

The OP described it as 'shocking'...!

What difference is there really in birth rates? I doubt much

Fertility rate cannot be less than 1.0

 

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-58595040

 

All religious groups in India have shown major declines in fertility rates, a study from Pew Research Center has found.

As a result there have been only "modest changes" in the religious make-up of the people since 1951.

The two largest groups, Hindus and Muslims, make up 94% of India's 1.2 billion people.

Christians, Sikhs, Buddhists and Jains together make up the remaining 6% of the population.

Based on data available in India's decennial census and the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), the Pew study examines how the country's religious composition has changed, and the main reasons behind the changes.

India's population has more than trebled following the 1947 division of a colonial state into Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan - from 361 million people in 1951, to more than 1.2 billion people in 2011. (Independent India held its first census in 1951, and the last one was conducted in 2011.)

During this period, every major religion in India saw its numbers rise, the study found.

The number of Hindus increased from 304 million to 966 million; Muslims grew from 35 million to 172 million; and the number of Indians who say they are Christian rose from 8 million to 28 million.

Presentational grey line
India MuslimsIMAGE SOURCE,AFP
Image caption,India is home to one of the world's largest Muslim populations, surpassed only by Indonesia

The religious make-up of Indians

  • Hindus make up 79.8% of India's 1.2 billion people in the 2011 census. 94% of the world's Hindus live in India
  • Muslims comprise 14.2% of Indians. India is home to one of the world's largest Muslim populations, surpassed only by Indonesia
  • Christians, Sikhs, Buddhists and Jains together make up 6% of the population
  • Only about 30,000 Indians described themselves as atheists in 2011
  • Around 8 million people said that they did not belong to any of the six largest groups
  • There were 83 smaller religious groups and each had at least 100 adherents
  • India gains roughly 1 million inhabitants every month, putting it on course to overtake China as the world's most populous country by 2030

(Source: 2011 census, Pew Research Center)

Presentational grey line

Muslims still have the highest fertility rate (2.6 children per woman in 2015) among the major religious groups, followed by Hindus (2.1). Jains have the lowest fertility rate at 1.2.

The study says the general pattern is largely the same as it was in 1992, when Muslims had the highest fertility rate (4.4), followed by Hindus (3.3).

"But the gaps in childbearing between India's religious groups are generally much smaller than they used to be," the study said.

India chart

And the slowdown in population growth has been more pronounced among India's minority groups who outpaced Hindus in earlier decades.

What is striking is a fertility decline of nearly two children per woman under 25 years in a single generation among Muslims, according to Stephanie Kramer, a senior Pew researcher specialising in religion.

As the number of children Indian women had declined from an average of 3.4 per woman in the early 1990s to 2.2 in 2015, the rate among Muslims fell even more steeply from 4.4 to 2.6.

Over a period of 60 years, the Muslim share of India's population grew by 4%, while the Hindu share declined by about the same amount. The other groups held fairly steady.

"The modest amount of demographic change can be explained by the fact that Muslim women have had more children, on average, than other Indian women, at least until fairly recently," Ms Kramer told the BBC.

Family sizes are influenced by a host of factors, making it "impossible to pinpoint exactly how much religious affiliation alone impacts fertility", the study says. Unlike in many countries, the impact of migration or religious conversion on demographic change in India is "negligible".

Fertility has been by far the "biggest driver" of the modest amount of religious change in India.

Population growth was driven also by the fact that groups with younger population have more women "entering their prime childbearing years and, as a result, tend to grow faster than the older populations". As of 2020, the study says, Hindus have a median age of 29, compared with 24 for Muslims and 31 for Christians.

Fertility rates in India

The other drivers of population growth in India include education levels of women (highly educated women often marry later and have their first child later than less educated women) and wealth (poorer women tend to have more children so that they can contribute to household work and incomes).

The findings are not entirely surprising because India's overall fertility rate has been declining steeply in recent decades - an average Indian woman is expected to have 2.2 children in her lifetime.

That's higher than rates in countries such as the US (1.6), but lower than India's in 1992 (3.4) or 1950 (5.9).

One interesting finding of the study is that only a few Indians don't claim membership of any religious group. Globally, "none" is the third most common religious affiliation - after Christian and Muslim.

"So it is interesting to see the unaffiliated are barely represented in such a large country," Ms Kramer says.

Also, several religious groups are concentrated in India to an "unusual extent": 94% of all Hindus live there, as well as the vast majority of all Jains and over 90% of Sikhs. Most Sikhs in the world live in just one Indian state - Punjab.

Compare this to China, which has a larger population, houses about half of the world's Buddhists and most unaffiliated people, but "nothing like 90% of any major religious group".

"There's really no country with a similar religious landscape to India," says Ms Kramer.

Charts by Vijdan Mohammad Kawoosa/BBC Monitoring

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