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Rapidly Deteriorating Economic Situation !


Guest SatwantBeantKehar
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Guest SatwantBeantKehar

I am a currency strategist with one of the major banks and keenly sutdy macro economics

The economy and job market are is not going to recover any time soon - have no hopes and prepare for the worst and here are the reasons:

The engine of world economy - US consumer(retail spending is 70% of US gdp ) has not only retrenched but all but vanished- we will see over 70000 stores closing this year alone - with few mega chains like Sears.

The retail bankruptcy will soon spill into commercial real estate and eventually the 'safe' canadian banks.

The job situation is deteriorating at a rate similar to the one seen during the great depression. We are losing One million + jobs in US and Canada together every month.

House prices are not set to stabilize any time soon - despite Obama's housing bill. AS the Star reported - roof has just caved in on housing starts in Canada.

GM, Ford, Chrysler -will all fail this year - combined they lost around 20 billion dollar last year - to put that in perspective -it is more than many small countires' entire GDP. Their failure will lead to 9 million job losses in 2009 alone.

Credit still remains frozen - banks are too afraid to lend to other banks and consumers. That means many small businesses - life blood of NA economy will go under.

Equities have just had their worst Feb ever - in March , dow will hit low 6000s that means trying to retire off of their 401ks and RRSPs will have to continue working - thereby further exacerbating the job situation.

economyzombie.blogspot.com

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Fateh Ji,

I feel the downturn will last throughout 2009.

India is now feeling the effects. Growth has fallen, property has fallen. What is saving India is the domestic demand of a billion plus people.

Indian Banks have not taken a hit like in US because Indian Banks have not let down their conservative approach while disbursing loans. Due diligence was not compromised.

With such a bleak outlook I feel gold will touch $ 1500 by next year. This would also not be a bad time to invest in that Home or Office one was planning to buy.

I feel the pointer to a recovery will be a resurgence will be a increase in Oil prices. Though this time Oil will not go to the record levels it went to last time. I feel $ 70 would be the upper limit.

Guru Rakha

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Fateh Ji,

I feel the downturn will last throughout 2009.

India is now feeling the effects. Growth has fallen, property has fallen. What is saving India is the domestic demand of a billion plus people.

Indian Banks have not taken a hit like in US because Indian Banks have not let down their conservative approach while disbursing loans. Due diligence was not compromised.

With such a bleak outlook I feel gold will touch $ 1500 by next year. This would also not be a bad time to invest in that Home or Office one was planning to buy.

I feel the pointer to a recovery will be a resurgence will be a increase in Oil prices. Though this time Oil will not go to the record levels it went to last time. I feel $ 70 would be the upper limit.

Guru Rakha

India IMPORTS 70% of oil. THATS GAME OVER. The only hope for Hindustan is to LICK THE FEET of RICH BANKERS(THIEFS) AND DRUG LORDS(EVIL) OF USA AND UK.

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Fateh Ji,

India IMPORTS 70% of oil. THATS GAME OVER. The only hope for Hindustan is to LICK THE FEET of RICH BANKERS(THIEFS) AND DRUG LORDS(EVIL) OF USA AND UK.

If you ask me with a GDP of 5.3% as of today India and China are better placed. And just for your information India has a very healthy FE reserve. Yes because of the downturn and because its an election year the deficit has gone up.

And when the turnaround does take place India and China will recover fastest and Stock Markets in both Countries will rocket.

Sorry but the hatred expressed for India does not make economic sense.

Guru Rakha

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