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Combative China rings alarm bells

By Saurabh Shukla | Mail Today – 6 hours ago

While Beijing spars verbally with New Delhi on a regular basis over Arunachal Pradesh and, more recently, displayed belligerence on the issue of oil hunting in South China Sea, the Communist neighbour could now be spoiling for an actual fight.

The threat of a Sino- Indian skirmish that may push the two Asian giants to the brink of war is so real that it has set the alarm bells ringing in the top echelons of the Union government. And, uncannily, the warning about the gathering war clouds comes just a few months before the 50th anniversary of the real war that had broken out between the countries when China launched simultaneous offensives in Ladakh and across the McMahon Line on October 20, 1962.

Last week, India's external intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) informed the government in a secret note accessed by HEADLINES TODAY that there was a possibility of a skirmish or an incident triggered by China on the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Beijing, the input stated, was contemplating such an action to divert attention from its own domestic trouble.

The assessment, shared with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, senior national security officials and the brass of the armed forces, is now being discussed at the highest levels of the government and has raised concern. The RAW note substantiated its claim by pointing to increased Chinese activity along the LAC. For the first time, China had stationed fighter aircraft in the Gongga airfield in the Tibet Autonomous Region throughout the winter months. It also activated new surveillance and tracking radars in the Lanzhou Military Region bordering India as well as in Tsona to monitor Indian activity, the RAW said.

According to the agency, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) conducted a large- scale Indiaspecific exercise in the Tibet Autonomous Region and Qinghai Plateau Region on June 14.The threat assessment was made against the backdrop of these developments, coupled with the perceived threat to China's domestic stability owing to internal political developments, economic problems and social issues in the run- up to the 18th party congress, which would determine a power transfer in March next year.

Ahead of this event, a tectonic shift will be witnessed in China's political landscape in 2012. President Hu Jintao will step down later this year as the general secretary of the Communist Party and hand over the reins to current Vice- President Xi Jinping. Xi, who is now 58, will take charge as the Chinese President in 2014. Along with Hu, seven out of the nine members of the party's highest decision- making body - the Politburo Standing Committee - are expected to retire. This includes current Premier Wen Jiabao, who is likely to be replaced by Vice- Premier Li Keqiang. "The Chinese leadership could be tempted to galvanise inherent xenophobic fervour to divert domestic attention to an external threat. In this context, there are two potential areas of tension. The first is the ongoing stand- off in the Scarborough Shoal area and the other is Tibet," the note stated.

Scarborough Shoal, located in South China Sea or West Philippine Sea, is being claimed by three countries: China, the Philippines and Taiwan. Tension between Manila and Beijing grew when the governments of the two nations accused each other of illegally occupying territorial waters near the shoal. It sparked nationalist sentiments in both countries and the word " war" was mentioned by several commentators.

But diplomatic sources disclosed that the Indian assessment was based on the fact that Beijing may not risk a war in South China Sea because it could lead to the US and other Western countries coming to the Philippines' rescue. In the case of the Sino- Indian boundary, however, the possibility of a skirmish was much higher because it was disputed, they explained.

Sources said this assessment took into consideration China's displeasure over the role of the Dalai Lama in allegedly fomenting trouble, including immolations, in Tibet. Provoking a skirmish with India may be part of a deliberate strategy to teach India a lesson, they added. "A prolonged conflict is, however, unlikely," the report concluded.

BORDER TROUBLE

So far, 14 rounds of boundary negotiations between the two countries have not yielded a breakthrough. The report notes Chinese anxiety over India's growing relationship with the US and Southeast Asian countries. Some hardliners in the top Chinese leadership have blamed the Dalai Lama for violence in Tibet.The Chinese also see India's hand since the country hosts the Dalai Lama.

China's internal economic and social troubles are likely to force its leadership to divert attention by having a skirmish with India. China has been closely following India's military expansion. It made more than 350 intrusions on the LAC last year to strengthen its stand on the boundary dispute.

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well done for coming up with the classic chestnut line. If a sikh knows nothing bowt the whole khalistan issue, hes considered a coconut, if a sikh wud rather b with india, then hes considered a sello

trust me brv, allow the waste mans you get me its not like the 2012 slang is a foreign language. Dont get me wrong, pull out the posh language when needed enit but shouldnt shy away from the way you s

no need to do to this

I doubt they will go to war, it's probably just the sensationalist media in India. But if it did, this could trigger world war 3. Pakistan could see this as a chance to attack India. Hopefully war will not happen, as it's always the innocent that suffer.

I doubt they will go to war, it's probably just the sensationalist media in India. But if it did, this could trigger world war 3. Pakistan could see this as a chance to attack India. Hopefully war will not happen, as it's always the innocent that suffer.

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If they did go to war, what side would the Sikhs take?

if sikhs had any brains they wud take chinas side. thats y pakistan to stay on the safe side, let china take eastern parts of kashmir (Aksai Chin), coz if they take panga with china, pakistan wud get eaten alive, any1 wud, jus look @ the americans in the korean war. If Khalistan is ever 2 b made, sikhs must ally with china n pakistan, and then u have Khalistan/pakistan/china bullying india into submission. thats my opinion anyway, n i suppose im not the only one.

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if sikhs had any brains they wud take chinas side. thats y pakistan to stay on the safe side, let china take eastern parts of kashmir (Aksai Chin), coz if they take panga with china, pakistan wud get eaten alive, any1 wud, jus look @ the americans in the korean war. If Khalistan is ever 2 b made, sikhs must ally with china n pakistan, and then u have Khalistan/pakistan/china bullying india into submission. thats my opinion anyway, n i suppose im not the only one.

There's so many Sikhs in the army so I doubt there will be any support for China. Whether or not Khalistan happens, which it probably won't, we must never be allies with Pakistan. Never! We can never trust them.

Unlike Sikhs in the UK and Canada the vast majority of Sikhs in India don't want Khalistan because they want peace.

For Khalistan to be formed there will need to be some kind of war, are you going to go there and fight and put your neck on the line, or are you going to stay in your safe haven thousands of miles away in the UK?

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There's so many Sikhs in the army so I doubt there will be any support for China. Whether or not Khalistan happens, which it probably won't, we must never be allies with Pakistan. Never! We can never trust them.

Unlike Sikhs in the UK and Canada the vast majority of Sikhs in India don't want Khalistan because they want peace.

For Khalistan to be formed there will need to be some kind of war, are you going to go there and fight and put your neck on the line, or are you going to stay in your safe haven thousands of miles away in the UK?

well done for coming up with the classic chestnut line. If a sikh knows nothing bowt the whole khalistan issue, hes considered a coconut, if a sikh wud rather b with india, then hes considered a sellout (which they are) and if sikhs shout for khalistan, they get taunted with "r u gonna go there n fight", u jus cant win. Well my answer 2 ur question is, yes! im not married, grew up in a rough area, so i would like 2 think so.

also u say khalistan wont happen, well who thought during the 1980's, mazboot yugoslavia wud break up? considering the combined states within it had 4th strongest army in the world. 10 years later, slovenia, croatia, bosnia n serbia etc broke into their respective ethnic nations. Who would of thought the powerful, shot callin, soviet union would break up? who would of thought that 20-30 yrs after the sikhs had the big holocaust in 1800's @ the hands of the afghans, that we wud wrestle panjab off them and establish sikhs as rulers of lahore? Too many lives have been lost in the 70s/80s/90s and too much lahoo/blood has been spilt to turn back now. 500,000 Sarbat khalsa in 1986 anounced that its khalistan thats been declared as the aim of our kaum at akal takht for the future.

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ਤਬੀ ਰੂਸ, ਚੀਨ ਹਿੰਦ ਮੇਂ ਚੜ੍ਹ ਆਵੈ ॥

and then Russia and China will come forth on india (Tabi Roos Chin Hind Mei Chard Aaway)

Guru Gobind SIngh Ji-Mangal Parkash

@ladli-fauj, thanks for that, ive seen this, i believe its in dasam granth right? In ur opinion will this event be a welcome for those who want independance n khalsa raj, or will this be that sikhs will have 2 play the heroes on india's behalf again? Coz chinas meddling will suit sikhs, but again ive heard that the 96crores will come 2 fruition or am i mixing times n events up?

cheers

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well done for coming up with the classic chestnut line. If a sikh knows nothing bowt the whole khalistan issue, hes considered a coconut, if a sikh wud rather b with india, then hes considered a sellout (which they are) and if sikhs shout for khalistan, they get taunted with "r u gonna go there n fight", u jus cant win. Well my answer 2 ur question is, yes! im not married, grew up in a rough area, so i would like 2 think so.

also u say khalistan wont happen, well who thought during the 1980's, mazboot yugoslavia wud break up? considering the combined states within it had 4th strongest army in the world. 10 years later, slovenia, croatia, bosnia n serbia etc broke into their respective ethnic nations. Who would of thought the powerful, shot callin, soviet union would break up? who would of thought that 20-30 yrs after the sikhs had the big holocaust in 1800's @ the hands of the afghans, that we wud wrestle panjab off them and establish sikhs as rulers of lahore? Too many lives have been lost in the 70s/80s/90s and too much lahoo/blood has been spilt to turn back now. 500,000 Sarbat khalsa in 1986 anounced that its khalistan thats been declared as the aim of our kaum at akal takht for the future.

Would you actually live there as well? Would you be prepared to leave the comforts of the UK for Punjab.

Would about the thousands that will die? Yugoslavia's partition was very brutal.

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Would you actually live there as well? Would you be prepared to leave the comforts of the UK for Punjab.

Would about the thousands that will die? Yugoslavia's partition was very brutal.

agreed the yugoslav partition was jus disgusting, but mr shamshere we come from the most violent part of the world, its kinda like a cycle i reckon, that genocides or deaths in large number seem 2 re-occur again. I think if we want independance, blood will have 2 be spilt, again, coz we have had our genocide from 1978-1995, where 250,000 sikhs have been killed, their Qurbanis, cannot b wasted.

Tbh regarding living there straight away, i dont kno, i havnt really thought about that, but ive always considered that regardless of whether we get independance or not, i will move 2 panjab wen im like 50+yrs old. Im sick of livin in this joke of a country.

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mangal prakash is from sau saakhi---i believe (well i will not put my full real beliefs on here in open) but that china and combined forces will attack india....some singhs will come from the atari border as it says in mangal prakash

ਤਬੀ ਸਿੰਘ ਫੌਜ ਚੜ੍ਹੇ,ਅਟਾਰੀ ਮੇਂ ਆਨ ॥

then the singh fauj will come from atari

the fauj iv heard will be arshi and shaheedi fauj so shaheedi fauj along with singhs here and that the combined forces will try to attack punjab and the sikhs will defend punjab,....., india will fall, what happens to china is another mystry i have some beliefs but with those im not 100 percent sure and that china and russia will be pushed back by a force and then the singhs will go to delhi and the leader of the singh fauj will put nishan sahib on laal kila and we will have khalsa raj...this is all the surface idea of it lol

and lol rebelsingh just asking how old are you cuzz u want to go to india when ur 50 + lol i think this will all happen sooner than we think and in our lifetimes, by then it might we too late or hard or circumstances might not premit, i would go to india when china first starts attacking

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mangal prakash is from sau saakhi---i believe (well i will not put my full real beliefs on here in open) but that china and combined forces will attack india....some singhs will come from the atari border as it says in mangal prakash

ਤਬੀ ਸਿੰਘ ਫੌਜ ਚੜ੍ਹੇ,ਅਟਾਰੀ ਮੇਂ ਆਨ ॥

then the singh fauj will come from atari

the fauj iv heard will be arshi and shaheedi fauj so shaheedi fauj along with singhs here and that the combined forces will try to attack punjab and the sikhs will defend, india will fall, what happens to china is another mystry i have some beliefs but with those im not 100 percent sure and that china and russia will be pushed back by a forcre and then the singhs will go to delhi and the leader of the singh fauj will put nishan sahib on laal kila and we will have khalsa raj

thanks bro, is atari the wagah/amritsar border right?

and lol rebelsingh just asking how old are you cuzz u want to go to india when ur 50 + lol i think this will all happen sooner than we think and in our lifetimes, by then it might we too late or hard or circumstances might not premit, i would go to india when china first starts attacking

lol bro im mid 20's, u seriously rekon this cud happen soon? wat time u finkin?

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agreed the yugoslav partition was jus disgusting, but mr shamshere we come from the most violent part of the world, its kinda like a cycle i reckon, that genocides or deaths in large number seem 2 re-occur again. I think if we want independance, blood will have 2 be spilt, again, coz we have had our genocide from 1978-1995, where 250,000 sikhs have been killed, their Qurbanis, cannot b wasted.

Tbh regarding living there straight away, i dont kno, i havnt really thought about that, but ive always considered that regardless of whether we get independance or not, i will move 2 panjab wen im like 50+yrs old. Im sick of livin in this joke of a country.

One thing I wouldn't be able to stand is the heat! That's why I always visit in February!

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